127 Grouse Ridge Ln · Beech Mountain Lakes, PA 18222

$199,999

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,490 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1991 0.51 ac lot Est $237k · 16% under $153/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Christmas has come early for the outdoor-entertaining enthusiast! This unique Beech Mountain home boasts sprawling patios, multi-level outdoor entertainment spaces, and mature landscaping. The detached, heated, 2-story, garage holds untold hidden potential. Don't let your holiday plans cause you to miss the opportunity to preview these three floors of open living space!

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($835/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Beech Mountain Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#698 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hazleton Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #476 of 539 in PA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Drums El/Ms (math 17% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,042 of 1,518 statewide, top 69%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Hazleton Area Hs (math 53% / reading 8%, grade F, #347 of 437 statewide, top 79%, 3,795 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $199,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,910
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Buck Ridge Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+8%)	9mo	$259,000	$161	67
40 Edge Rock Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+3%)	1mo	$245,000	$159	65
106 Randy Ridge Ct	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,475 (-1%)	2mo	$170,000	$115	55
205 Snow Valley Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+2%)	16mo	$250,000	$164	53
158 Buck Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,388 (-7%)	16mo	$217,000	$156	49
154 Bear Run Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+10%)	11mo	$300,000	$184	44
213 Shingle Mill Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-12%)	9mo	$256,000	$195	33
17 Tommys Ct	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,701 (+14%)	4mo	$195,000	$115	29
241 Snow Valley Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,700 (+14%)	17mo	$260,000	$153	26
226 Avalanche Ln	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,557 (+4%)	22mo	$200,000	$128	26
231 Snow Valley Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+14%)	21mo	$310,000	$182	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $113,527
• Equity at exit: $180,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.91×
• Total profit: $331,167
• Equity at exit: $388,554

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18222

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$153
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,030

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $126	+0% $70	+5% $13	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-14	+0% $70	+5% $153	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $170	-0.5pp $120	base $70	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $153 · $1,836/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 5 events

1. 2023-08-29
   status Pending
2. 2023-08-20
   historical
3. 2020-02-27
   soldstatus $200,000
4. 2019-12-30
   historical
5. 2019-12-16
   listed $199,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,034
• − Management: −$2,034
• − HOA: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$559
• After-tax cash flow: $1,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazleton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,247
• Composite: 20.44/100
• National rank: #8582
• State rank: #476 of 539 in PA

Livability — Beech Mountain Lakes

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #6837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beech Mountain Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,946

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.01%
• Current HPI: 302.4923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2023-08-29 Pending — LCAR
• 2023-08-20 Delisted — LCAR
• 2020-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-30 Delisted — LCAR
• 2019-12-16 Listed $199,999 LCAR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,825 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.