651 Cr 45

South Cairo, NY 12058

$249,000F

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,975 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 340 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-519/mo
• Annual: $-6,233/yr
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.94%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-519 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (38.9% below list).
• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $152k (38.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Coxsackie-Athens Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #384 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.