651 Cr 45 · South Cairo, NY 12058

$249,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,975 sqft · SingleFamily · 337 Days on market

Built 1900 1.80 ac lot $84/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Restore the Charm of This Classic Country Home Step into the past and bring your vision to life with this enchanting country house, ready to be restored to its original glory. Bursting with character, this home features authentic details including wood siding, wide board floors, multiple mantels, and a beautifully crafted original banister. Let your creativity guide you—whether you're dreaming of a cozy family retreat, a serene vacation getaway, a unique Airbnb, or a fully remodeled forever home, the possibilities are endless. Set on 1.8 picturesque acres with a tranquil pond and sweeping views, this property offers the perfect blend of history, nature, and opportunity. Original accents throughout the home provide the ideal canvas for a stunning renovation that preserves the past while embracing the future.

Key facts

• Wide board floors
• Original banister
• Sweeping views

Tags

• WOOD SIDING
• WIDE BOARD FLOORS
• MULTIPLE MANTELS
• ORIGINAL BANISTER
• TRANQUIL POND
• SWEEPING VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-519 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (30.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (38.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (38.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Coxsackie-Athens Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #384 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $152,069 (38.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.94%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $617,654
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -59.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $58,072
• Equity at exit: $177,000

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $193,244
• Equity at exit: $340,331

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12058

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,521 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $173,837

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-347	-5% $-433	+0% $-519	+5% $-605	+10% $-692
Rent	-10% $-640	-5% $-580	+0% $-519	+5% $-459	+10% $-399
Rate	-1.0pp $-394	-0.5pp $-456	base $-519	+0.5pp $-584	+1.0pp $-650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 337 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 336 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 335 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 334 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 332 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 331 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 329 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 328 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 326 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 323 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 322 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 321 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 320 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 319 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 318 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    status Active 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Restore the Charm of This Classic Country Home Step into the past and bring your vision to life with this enchanting country house, ready to be restored to its original glory. Bursting with character, this home features authentic details including wood siding, wide board floors, multiple mantels, and a beautifully crafted original banister. Let your creativity guide you—whether you're dreaming of a cozy family retreat, a serene vacation getaway, a unique Airbnb, or a fully remodeled forever home, the possibilities are endless. Set on 1.8 picturesque acres with a tranquil pond and sweeping views, this property offers the perfect blend of history, nature, and opportunity. Original accents throughout the home provide the ideal canvas for a stunning renovation that preserves the past while embracing the future.

18. 2026-05-18
    historical 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Restore the Charm of This Classic Country Home Step into the past and bring your vision to life with this enchanting country house, ready to be restored to its original glory. Bursting with character, this home features authentic details including wood siding, wide board floors, multiple mantels, and a beautifully crafted original banister. Let your creativity guide you—whether you're dreaming of a cozy family retreat, a serene vacation getaway, a unique Airbnb, or a fully remodeled forever home, the possibilities are endless. Set on 1.8 picturesque acres with a tranquil pond and sweeping views, this property offers the perfect blend of history, nature, and opportunity. Original accents throughout the home provide the ideal canvas for a stunning renovation that preserves the past while embracing the future.

19. 2026-05-08
    status Active 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Restore the Charm of This Classic Country Home Step into the past and bring your vision to life with this enchanting country house, ready to be restored to its original glory. Bursting with character, this home features authentic details including wood siding, wide board floors, multiple mantels, and a beautifully crafted original banister. Let your creativity guide you—whether you're dreaming of a cozy family retreat, a serene vacation getaway, a unique Airbnb, or a fully remodeled forever home, the possibilities are endless. Set on 1.8 picturesque acres with a tranquil pond and sweeping views, this property offers the perfect blend of history, nature, and opportunity. Original accents throughout the home provide the ideal canvas for a stunning renovation that preserves the past while embracing the future.

20. 2026-05-07
    historical 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Restore the Charm of This Classic Country Home Step into the past and bring your vision to life with this enchanting country house, ready to be restored to its original glory. Bursting with character, this home features authentic details including wood siding, wide board floors, multiple mantels, and a beautifully crafted original banister. Let your creativity guide you—whether you're dreaming of a cozy family retreat, a serene vacation getaway, a unique Airbnb, or a fully remodeled forever home, the possibilities are endless. Set on 1.8 picturesque acres with a tranquil pond and sweeping views, this property offers the perfect blend of history, nature, and opportunity. Original accents throughout the home provide the ideal canvas for a stunning renovation that preserves the past while embracing the future.

21. 2026-01-20
    price $249,000 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Restore the Charm of This Classic Country Home Step into the past and bring your vision to life with this enchanting country house, ready to be restored to its original glory. Bursting with character, this home features authentic details including wood siding, wide board floors, multiple mantels, and a beautifully crafted original banister. Let your creativity guide you—whether you're dreaming of a cozy family retreat, a serene vacation getaway, a unique Airbnb, or a fully remodeled forever home, the possibilities are endless. Set on 1.8 picturesque acres with a tranquil pond and sweeping views, this property offers the perfect blend of history, nature, and opportunity. Original accents throughout the home provide the ideal canvas for a stunning renovation that preserves the past while embracing the future.

22. 2025-07-17
    status Active 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Restore the Charm of This Classic Country Home Step into the past and bring your vision to life with this enchanting country house, ready to be restored to its original glory. Bursting with character, this home features authentic details including wood siding, wide board floors, multiple mantels, and a beautifully crafted original banister. Let your creativity guide you—whether you're dreaming of a cozy family retreat, a serene vacation getaway, a unique Airbnb, or a fully remodeled forever home, the possibilities are endless. Set on 1.8 picturesque acres with a tranquil pond and sweeping views, this property offers the perfect blend of history, nature, and opportunity. Original accents throughout the home provide the ideal canvas for a stunning renovation that preserves the past while embracing the future.

23. 2025-07-16
    listed $275,000 Active 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Restore the Charm of This Classic Country Home Step into the past and bring your vision to life with this enchanting country house, ready to be restored to its original glory. Bursting with character, this home features authentic details including wood siding, wide board floors, multiple mantels, and a beautifully crafted original banister. Let your creativity guide you—whether you're dreaming of a cozy family retreat, a serene vacation getaway, a unique Airbnb, or a fully remodeled forever home, the possibilities are endless. Set on 1.8 picturesque acres with a tranquil pond and sweeping views, this property offers the perfect blend of history, nature, and opportunity. Original accents throughout the home provide the ideal canvas for a stunning renovation that preserves the past while embracing the future.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,460
• − Management: −$1,460
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$10,843
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,602
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coxsackie-Athens Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608490
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $55,006
• Composite: 42.8/100
• National rank: #3143
• State rank: #384 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Cairo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 601
• Population (ZIP): 1,451

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.27%
• Current HPI: 358.9217
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-18 Delisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Delisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $249,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-07-17 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $275,000 HVCRMLS