7312 Tenton Xing #186

Heron Bay, GA 30248

$433,225D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,866 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,086/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,272
• Tax + insurance: −$722
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-556/mo
• Annual: $-6,669/yr
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.50%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $121,303

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $433k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-556 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (28.8% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $309k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bethlehem Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #753 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 474 students, 53% FRL); Luella Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 870 students, 53% FRL); Luella High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,373 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 732 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.