7312 Tenton Xing #186 · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$433,225

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,866 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $151/sqft · 29% below area Est $611k · 29% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Homesite #186Welcome to this beautifully designed Hampstead home featuring the Milan Collection, with 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a 2-car garage overlooking the golf course. The open layout showcases a spacious kitchen with a large island, flowing into a bright family room and dining area with patio access. A main-level bedroom adds flexibility, while upstairs the primary suite offers a walk-in closet and spa-like bath for comfort and style. Heron Bay, located in Locust Grove, GA, offers a comprehensive suite of amenities designed to cater to a wide range of interests and lifestyles.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Spacious kitchen
• Aquatic center

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LAKEFRONT PARK
• AQUATIC CENTER
• TENNIS COURTS
• NATURE TRAILS
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $433k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-556 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $353k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bethlehem Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #753 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 474 students, 53% FRL); Luella Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 870 students, 53% FRL); Luella High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,373 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 732 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $308,634 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.50%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $611,114
• List price: $433,225
• Delta: -29.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7312 Tenton Xing	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,866 (0%)	2mo	$428,000	$149	98
7320 Tenton Xing	0.03mi	5/3.0	2,866 (0%)	1mo	$452,820	$158	98
7316 Tenton Xing	0.02mi	5/3.0	2,801 (-2%)	1mo	$433,170	$155	95
7328 Tenton Xing	0.05mi	5/3.0	2,801 (-2%)	0mo	$424,305	$151	94
7252 Eton Ln	0.21mi	5/4.0	2,867 (0%)	11mo	$439,900	$153	77
6508 Terraglen Way	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,875 (+0%)	8mo	$430,000	$150	73
7216 Eton Ln	0.33mi	5/3.0	3,066 (+7%)	12mo	$472,400	$154	63
5383 Heron Bay Blvd	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,066 (+7%)	11mo	$399,990	$130	59
6856 Louis Dr Lot 1	0.24mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,223 (+12%)	7mo	$480,000	$149	55
7204 Eton Ln	0.36mi	5/4.0	3,208 (+12%)	6mo	$465,000	$145	54
7663 Watson Cir	0.68mi	5/3.0	2,556 (-11%)	5mo	$349,000	$137	46
7644 Watson Cir	0.70mi	5/3.0	3,216 (+12%)	10mo	$365,000	$113	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-108,135
• Equity at exit: $64,595

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-149,985
• Equity at exit: $37,457

Cash invested: $121,303 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $414,900 ($155/sqft)
• Median days on market: 114 d
• This list price: 65% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +37.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 732
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,272
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$542 /mo · $6,498/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,790

Max offer price $352,813

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-256	-5% $-406	+0% $-556	+5% $-705	+10% $-855
Rent	-10% $-800	-5% $-678	+0% $-556	+5% $-434	+10% $-312
Rate	-1.0pp $-338	-0.5pp $-446	base $-556	+0.5pp $-668	+1.0pp $-782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,306
• Closing costs: $12,997
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5341 Heron Bay Blvd Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	2091	$2,800	$1.34	93d	1	0.16mi
6138 Golf View Xing Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	3088	$3,073	$1.00	6d	1	0.51mi
7663 Watson Cir Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	2556	$2,800	$1.10	49d	1	0.69mi
817 Brampton Way Locust Grove, GA	5.0	2.5	3023	$3,500	$1.16	0d	1	1.05mi
1201 Shelborne Way Locust Grove, GA	5.0	4.0	3304	$2,895	$0.88	2d	1	1.14mi
1421 Kentmire Ct Locust Grove, GA	5.0	4.0	3498	$3,086	$0.88	2d	1	1.32mi
1629 Prospect Pl Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	3350	$2,730	$0.81	120d	1	1.34mi
1521 Granby Ln Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.5	3546	$3,031	$0.85	139d	1	1.46mi
2505 Mockingbird Ln Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	2142	$2,130	$0.99	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-30
   days on market $433,225 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-29
   days on market $433,225 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-28
   days on market $433,225 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-27
   pricedays on market $433,225 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-26
   days on market $433,165 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-24
   days on market $433,165 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-22
   days on market $433,165 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-21
   days on market $433,165 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-18
   days on market $433,165 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-17
    days on market $433,165 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-16
    days on market $433,165 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-15
    days on market $433,165 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-13
    price $433,165 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-09
    days on market $374,900 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,900 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,900 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,900 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
19. 2026-06-02
    listed $374,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,267
• − Property taxes: −$6,498
• − Insurance: −$2,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,963
• − Management: −$2,963
• − Depreciation: −$12,603
• Taxable loss: −$14,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,462
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,330–$42,990 screening

This Hampstead home in Heron Bay, GA, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a spacious layout. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the home, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more visitors to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bethlehem Elementary School F GA #753/1,228 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Luella Middle School F GA #345/470 Nat'l #11,564/14,009 High Luella High School F GA #277/424 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heron Bay, GA
• County: Henry County · 249,041 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B