14 Overlook Ave

Mystic, CT 06355

$455,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 948 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax + insurance: −$508
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-1,023/mo
• Annual: $-12,280/yr
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.64%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $127,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (39.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (48.0% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $237k (48.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in CT, #1,266 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Groton School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #96 of 153 in CT (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $266k; list at $455k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.0% in Mystic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.