14 Overlook Ave · Mystic, CT 06355

$455,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 948 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1955 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 br ranch. Walk to downtown.Large family/recreation room, hardwood floors, private rear yard. Open, bright kitchen, sliding door to patio, skylight in bath. Exterior recently painted. Move in condition. Call duane simonds.

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• California closet
• Walk to dinner

Tags

• HISTORIC VILLAGE OF MYSTIC
• WALK TO DINNER
• SHOPPING AND EVENTS
• SHORT STROLL TO DOWNTOWN
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• CALIFORNIA CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Fuel tank located in basement
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Shake siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Walk to water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Split system; Wall unit; Baseboard heat; Electric and oil fuel options; Thermopane windows (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Cable pre-wired; Full basement; Has attic with pull-down stairs; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on lower level (room of its own); Washer; Electric dryer; 50-gallon domestic oil hot water tank

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (39.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (48.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (48.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.0% in Mystic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in CT, #1,266 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Groton School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #96 of 153 in CT (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $266k; list at $455k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $236,748 (48.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.64%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-139,025
• Equity at exit: $67,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-205,468
• Equity at exit: $39,340

Cash invested: $127,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06355

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,367 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax from tax record: −$318 /mo · $3,816/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-1,023

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,663

Max offer price $274,222

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,750
• Closing costs: $13,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12 Water St Mystic, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,800	$3.07	13d	3	0.62mi
12 Water St Unit 311 Mystic, CT	1.0	1.0	750	$2,500	$3.33	13d	1	0.62mi
12 Water St Unit 408 Mystic, CT	2.0	1.0	1075	$2,800	$2.60	21d	1	0.63mi
45 W Main St Unit 2 Mystic, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$2,295	$2.55	13d	1	0.71mi
75 Steamboat Wharf Bldg Res-38 Mystic, CT	1.0	1.0	775	$1,890	$2.44	13d	1	0.76mi
212 Cedar Rd Mystic, CT	2.0	1.0	660	$2,000	$3.03	21d	1	1.10mi
6 School St #20 Mystic, CT	1.0	1.5	706	$2,600	$3.68	21d	1	1.12mi
2 Lincoln Ave Apt 3 Mystic, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,875	$2.08	21d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $455,000 Active
2. 2004-10-21
   soldstatus $266,500
3. 1998-06-30
   soldstatus $130,000 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   Charming 3 br ranch. Walk to downtown.Large family/recreation room, hardwood floors, private rear yard. Open, bright kitchen, sliding door to patio, skylight in bath. Exterior recently painted. Move in condition. Call duane simonds.

4. 1998-03-02
   listed $138,500 232-char remark

   Show marketing remark (232 chars)

   Charming 3 br ranch. Walk to downtown.Large family/recreation room, hardwood floors, private rear yard. Open, bright kitchen, sliding door to patio, skylight in bath. Exterior recently painted. Move in condition. Call duane simonds.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,816 · $318/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,776 · $565/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,960/yr (+$247/mo · 77.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,487
• − Property taxes: −$3,816
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,273
• − Management: −$2,273
• − Depreciation: −$13,236
• Taxable loss: −$20,950
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,028
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groton School District
• NCES district ID: 0901770
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,709
• Composite: 36.28/100
• National rank: #4702
• State rank: #96 of 153 in CT

Livability — Mystic

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1266

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: New London County · 147,197 people
• Metro: Norwich-New London, CT
• Population (ZIP): 12,173
• Household income: $137,425
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 197.0

Population outlook (Southeastern Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 293,442

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 9% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Southeastern Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+13.0) · D 55.6% · R 42.6% · Other 1.8%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.46%
• Current HPI: 287.7568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Norwich-New London, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+228.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $455,000 Smart MLS
• 2004-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $266,500 Public Records
• 1998-06-30 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Smart MLS
• 1998-03-02 Listed $138,500 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,816 · -12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.