2545 Poppy Drive Dr NE

Keeler Farm, NM 88030

$139,750D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1997 · Other · Active · 168 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,427/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$733
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $161/mo
• Annual: $1,935/yr
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.95%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $39,130

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $966 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#92 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.