2545 Poppy Drive Dr NE · Keeler Farm, NM 88030

$139,750

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Other · 168 Days on market

Built 1997 2.60 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom, double wide manufactured home w an active title born on its current location, built in 1997, home sits on approximately 2.6 acres of tranquil land. The spacious 28 X 64 layout, totaling 1792 sqft, ensures comfort. Embrace the freedom of country living with your own septic system, well, two evaporative coolers one cooler needs a motor / work. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate the expansive land, providing endless possibilities for gardening, recreational activities, or simply enjoying the breathtaking natural surroundings. RV enthusiasts will find delight in the dedicated RV hookup with electric and sewer connections. This residence provides a unique opportunity for those seeking a serene escape. SELLER WILL CONSINDER ALL OFFERS AND SELLER IS A MOTIVATED SELLER. BRING IN YOUR OFFER!!!

Key facts

• Expansive land
• Dedicated rv hookup
• Septic system

Tags

• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• DEDICATED RV HOOKUP
• EXPANSIVE LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#92 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $966 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,980 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.95%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-12,352
• Equity at exit: $20,837

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,559
• Equity at exit: $12,083

Cash invested: $39,130 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88030

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$733
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,096/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $139,750

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,938
• Closing costs: $4,192
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,750 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,750 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,750 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,750 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,750 Active 164 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,750 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,750 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,750 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,750 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,750 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $139,750 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 153 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 152 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 151 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 149 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 148 DOM
18. 2026-01-02
    listed $155,000 Active 833-char remark

    Show marketing remark (833 chars)

    This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom, double wide manufactured home w an active title born on its current location, built in 1997, home sits on approximately 2.6 acres of tranquil land. The spacious 28 X 64 layout, totaling 1792 sqft, ensures comfort. Embrace the freedom of country living with your own septic system, well, two evaporative coolers one cooler needs a motor / work. Outdoor enthusiasts will appreciate the expansive land, providing endless possibilities for gardening, recreational activities, or simply enjoying the breathtaking natural surroundings. RV enthusiasts will find delight in the dedicated RV hookup with electric and sewer connections. This residence provides a unique opportunity for those seeking a serene escape. SELLER WILL CONSINDER ALL OFFERS AND SELLER IS A MOTIVATED SELLER. BRING IN YOUR OFFER!!!

19. 2025-01-02
    price $160,000
20. 2024-04-15
    price $166,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,828
• − Property taxes: −$2,096
• − Insurance: −$699
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$4,065
• Taxable loss: −$308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$74
• After-tax cash flow: $2,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deming Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500690
• Math proficiency: 18% —
• Reading proficiency: 27% —
• Median HH income: $28,092
• Composite: 21.02/100
• National rank: #13708
• State rank: #63 of 95 in NM

Livability — Keeler Farm

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #17430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keeler Farm, NM
• Population (ZIP): 24,270

Population outlook (Luna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,859 people
• By 2030: 22,105 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 20,738 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 19,336 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 15,439 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 9,313 · -59.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% White 30% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Luna

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.4% · R 58.3% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+3.9 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.37%
• Current HPI: 114.8626
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Listed $155,000 NMMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $160,000 NMMLS
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $166,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $173 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.