8117 Vail Dr

Amarillo, TX 79118

$307,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,785 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,587/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,610
• Tax + insurance: −$584
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,797/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.09%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $85,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (15.7% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $259k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: City View El (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 628 students, 44% FRL); West Plains J H (math 59% / reading 58%, grade B, #185 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 615 students, 33% FRL); West Plains H S (910 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.