3108 Vineland

Baldwin Park, CA 91706

$10,800,000F

62 bd · 52.0 ba · 35,954 sqft · Built 1978 · MultiFamily · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$56,636
• Tax + insurance: −$9,514
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,127
• Net cashflow: $-58,150/mo
• Annual: $-697,805/yr
• Cap rate: -0.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.08%
• DSCR: -0.03
• 1% rule: 0.09%
• Cash to close: $3,024,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $10.80M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58k ($-698k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-15k/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.16M (89.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.01M (90.6% below list).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($9.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.01M (90.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $75k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $324k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#357 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin Park Unified (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #359 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Foster Elementary (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,150 of 1,571 statewide, top 74%, 425 students, 85% FRL); Charles D. Jones Middle (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #260 of 498 statewide, top 54%, 468 students, 93% FRL); Baldwin Park High (math 27% / reading 72%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 1,414 students, 85% FRL).
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2.00M; list at $10.80M implies a 440% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -0.2% vs local median 2.8% in Baldwin Park — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $10,127/mo this rent would consume 150% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 91% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?