3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,480 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,682/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$783
Tax + insurance
−$188
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$353
Net cashflow
$357/mo
Annual
$4,285/yr
Cap rate
9.16%
Cash-on-cash
10.24%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
1.13%
Cash to close
$41,832
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Rains ISD (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #697 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Rains El (437 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Rains County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.5% in East Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8QKBF464Q78CTP
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29