2709 Golden Rain Rd #6

Walnut Creek, CA 94595

$289,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$482
• HOA: −$1,383
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-855/mo
• Annual: $-10,261/yr
• Cap rate: 2.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.68%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-855 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (42.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#113 in CA, #4,005 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Acalanes Union High (suburban): math 73% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #21 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $289k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 1.1% in Walnut Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?