2709 Golden Rain Rd #6 · Walnut Creek, CA 94595

$289,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,054 sqft · Condo public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1965 $1383/mo HOA · 43% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.6/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CREAM PUFF! NEW PAINT,COOKTOP, HOOD, S.C.OVEN. STACKED W/D. OPEN DECK. PLEASANT OUTLOOK. BUYER PAYS $5K GRF FEE. LIGHT,

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Carport nearby
• Washer and dryer

Tags

• OPEN BALCONY
• WASHER AND DRYER
• CARPORT NEARBY
• FITNESS CENTER
• POOLS
• CLUBHOUSES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association (1st Walnut Creek Mutual); Monthly association fee; Association amenities include pool, spa/hot tub, fitness center, tennis courts, gated community, playground, golf course access, greenbelt, clubhouse/recreation facilities, workshop area, game rooms/courts, BBQ areas, dog park, trails, guest parking, RV/boat storage, laundry, park and organized activities; Association fee covers street, cable TV, reserves, insurance, water, sewer, trash, management fees, hazard insurance, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, grounds maintenance, and organized activities; Pets allowed (cats and dogs) with limits

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; One space per unit; Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in kitchen; Cable available and connected; Internet available
• Home design: Residential condominium; Built in 1965
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / cooktop; Free-standing range; Range/oven (self-cleaning); Disposal; Refrigerator; Laminate counters; 220-volt outlet in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Concrete; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower-over-tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional rooms; Stair lift; Screens and window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; 220-volt outlet for laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-855 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (42.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 1.1% in Walnut Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#113 in CA, #4,005 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Acalanes Union High (suburban): math 73% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #21 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $289k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,269 (42.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 2.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.68%
• DSCR: 0.44
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-100,392
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.90×
• Total profit: $-153,897
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94595

• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,196 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$1,383
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-855

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,279

Max offer price $165,269

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-655	-5% $-755	+0% $-855	+5% $-955	+10% $-1,055
Rent	-10% $-1,108	-5% $-981	+0% $-855	+5% $-729	+10% $-603
Rate	-1.0pp $-710	-0.5pp $-782	base $-855	+0.5pp $-930	+1.0pp $-1,006

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1865 Golden Rain Rd #3 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	2.0	1301	$3,400	$2.61	15d	1	0.28mi
1910 Skycrest Dr #5 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	1054	$3,500	$3.32	0d	1	0.54mi
1918 Newell Ave Walnut Creek, CA	3.0	2.0	1279	$5,200	$4.07	0d	1	0.82mi
1123 S Villa Way Unit 1 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	2.0	895	$2,995	$3.35	0d	1	0.85mi
1172 Saranap Ave Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,300	$3.07	0d	1	0.96mi
74 Palana Ct #78 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	772	$3,150	$4.08	0d	1	1.02mi
207 Saranap Ave Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,950	$2.95	11d	1	1.05mi
1776 Botelho Dr Walnut Creek, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$2,995	$4.08	0d	3	1.28mi
1315 Alma Ave #223 Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	741	$3,550	$4.79	24d	1	1.31mi
1310 Alma Ave Walnut Creek, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$2,395	$3.30	0d	1	1.31mi
125 Meadow Crest Ln Walnut Creek, CA	2.0	2.0	1102	$3,950	$3.58	8d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,383 · $16,596/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $289,000 Active 526-char remark
16. 2025-12-18
    historical
17. 2025-12-03
    price
18. 2025-10-15
    listed Active
19. 2001-07-27
    soldstatus $144,068

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    CREAM PUFF! NEW PAINT,COOKTOP, HOOD, S.C.OVEN. STACKED W/D. OPEN DECK. PLEASANT OUTLOOK. BUYER PAYS $5K GRF FEE. LIGHT,

20. 2001-06-17
    historical

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    CREAM PUFF! NEW PAINT,COOKTOP, HOOD, S.C.OVEN. STACKED W/D. OPEN DECK. PLEASANT OUTLOOK. BUYER PAYS $5K GRF FEE. LIGHT,

21. 2001-05-30
    listed $146,568

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    CREAM PUFF! NEW PAINT,COOKTOP, HOOD, S.C.OVEN. STACKED W/D. OPEN DECK. PLEASANT OUTLOOK. BUYER PAYS $5K GRF FEE. LIGHT,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,069
• − Management: −$3,069
• − HOA: −$16,596
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$14,752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Acalanes Union High
• NCES district ID: 0601650
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 85% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $120,138
• Composite: 73.49/100
• National rank: #179
• State rank: #21 of 517 in CA

Livability — Walnut Creek

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #4005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walnut Creek, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 90,740
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 16,988
• Household income: $100,552
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 629.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -710.17%
• Current HPI: 360.6365
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+97.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $289,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-15 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-07-27 Sold (MLS) $144,068 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-06-17 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2001-05-30 Listed $146,568 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR