405 Horan Rd

Solvay, NY 13209

$189,000B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,344 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 167 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,456/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$561
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $388/mo
• Annual: $4,655/yr
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.80%
• DSCR: 1.39
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• West Genesee Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #241 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Stonehedge Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #658 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 724 students, 26% FRL); West Genesee Middle School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 686 students, 32% FRL); West Genesee Senior High School (math 94%, 1,357 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.