405 Horan Rd · Solvay, NY 13209

$189,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1920 0.93 ac lot Est $363k · 48% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 405 Horan Rd, if you are looking for your next investment property this may be it! Situated on almost 2 acres and backs up to a beautiful brook for nature lovers. This property offers flexible living options for multigenerational living or rental possibilities. The first floor includes two bedrooms, a full bathroom, living room with hardwood flooring, along with a separate dining room off the spacious kitchen and direct access to the fenced-in side yard. The 2nd floor of the house offers a separate exterior balcony which was recently built in 2019 for its own private entrance, this floor offers three bedrooms, a full kitchen, full bathroom and features a walk-up attic. At the re

Key facts

• Separate entrance
• Fenced side yard
• Extra workspace

Tags

• FENCED SIDE YARD
• SEPARATE ENTRANCE
• WALK-UP ATTIC
• ROUGHED-IN PLUMBING
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• EXTRA WORKSPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• West Genesee Central School District (suburban): math 56% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #241 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Stonehedge Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #658 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 724 students, 26% FRL); West Genesee Middle School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C+, #241 of 729 statewide, top 35%, 686 students, 32% FRL); West Genesee Senior High School (math 94%, 1,357 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.80%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,320
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
318 Case St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,352 (+0%)	2mo	$295,000	$125	59
136 Blackstone	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,080 (-11%)	21mo	$321,500	$155	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,731
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $27,589
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13209

• Home prices YoY: -7.7%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,456 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$483 /mo · $5,792/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $441	+0% $388	+5% $334	+10% $281
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $291	+0% $388	+5% $485	+10% $582
Rate	-1.0pp $483	-0.5pp $436	base $388	+0.5pp $339	+1.0pp $289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Hall Ave Solvay, NY	5.0	2.5	1800	$3,600	$2.00	22d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-30
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-27
   price $189,000
4. 2025-12-18
   price $194,900
5. 2025-11-19
   listed $219,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,792 · $483/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,792 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,476
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$5,792
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,358
• − Management: −$2,358
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $1,937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$465
• After-tax cash flow: $4,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Genesee Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630630
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $65,588
• Composite: 51.31/100
• National rank: #1745
• State rank: #241 of 590 in NY

Livability — Solvay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onondaga County · 247,257 people
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• Population (ZIP): 12,714
• Household income: $68,138
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 210.0

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Subsaharan African 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.23%
• Current HPI: 326.7671
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Syracuse, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-30 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $189,000 CNYIS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $194,900 CNYIS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $219,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,792 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.