22012 County Road 49

Branford, FL 32071

$259,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$238
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-579/mo
• Annual: $-6,949/yr
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.58%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.50%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-579 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (39.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (50.3% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (50.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#748 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Suwannee (town): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 73 in FL (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Suwannee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $259k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.7% in Branford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.