22012 County Road 49 · Branford, FL 32071

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2008 0.62 ac lot $187/sqft · 22% below area Est $331k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Low maintenance living in this well maintained three-bedroom, two bath, 1386 sq. ft. home situated on . 62 acres. This home brings you comfort and convenience in a prime North Florida location. Home features vinyl siding, a new metal roof installed this year, new flooring in the kitchen and bedrooms, new light fixtures and faucets, and appliances less than two years old. Step outside to enjoy a fenced backyard where you can sit and watch the kids play or entertain. This property also features a paved driveway with paved parking, a two-car garage and separate utility building for extra storage or workshop options. Home is ideally located between Lake City and Branford, and less than ten miles to Branford Elementary school.

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Paved parking
• Paved driveway

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• NEW METAL ROOF
• FENCED BACKYARD
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• PAVED PARKING
• SEPARATE UTILITY BUILDING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-579 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (39.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (50.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (50.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.7% in Branford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#748 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Suwannee (town): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 73 in FL (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Suwannee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $259k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,732 (50.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.58%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 16.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,406
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -21.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.91% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,964
• Equity at exit: $130,015

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $61,229
• Equity at exit: $211,618

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32071

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 16.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,287 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $156,708

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-432	-5% $-506	+0% $-579	+5% $-652	+10% $-726
Rent	-10% $-681	-5% $-630	+0% $-579	+5% $-528	+10% $-477
Rate	-1.0pp $-449	-0.5pp $-513	base $-579	+0.5pp $-646	+1.0pp $-714

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $259,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $259,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active Under Contract 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active Under Contract 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,000 Active Under Contract 88 DOM
16. 2026-03-30
    price $259,000 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Low maintenance living in this well maintained three-bedroom, two bath, 1386 sq. ft. home situated on . 62 acres. This home brings you comfort and convenience in a prime North Florida location. Home features vinyl siding, a new metal roof installed this year, new flooring in the kitchen and bedrooms, new light fixtures and faucets, and appliances less than two years old. Step outside to enjoy a fenced backyard where you can sit and watch the kids play or entertain. This property also features a paved driveway with paved parking, a two-car garage and separate utility building for extra storage or workshop options. Home is ideally located between Lake City and Branford, and less than ten miles to Branford Elementary school.

17. 2026-03-04
    listed $269,000 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Low maintenance living in this well maintained three-bedroom, two bath, 1386 sq. ft. home situated on . 62 acres. This home brings you comfort and convenience in a prime North Florida location. Home features vinyl siding, a new metal roof installed this year, new flooring in the kitchen and bedrooms, new light fixtures and faucets, and appliances less than two years old. Step outside to enjoy a fenced backyard where you can sit and watch the kids play or entertain. This property also features a paved driveway with paved parking, a two-car garage and separate utility building for extra storage or workshop options. Home is ideally located between Lake City and Branford, and less than ten miles to Branford Elementary school.

18. 2020-08-12
    soldstatus $155,000 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Y''all, you will FALL IN LOVE with this wonderful first time home or forever home in SUWANNEE COUNTY! Gorgeous 2008 site built home offering 3 beds/2 bath on near one full acre, wonderful front and back yard perfect for family , pets and outdoor gatherings. Back yard completely fenced , above ground pool and nice detached garage along with an additional storage building. Interior offers a nice open floor plan, with upgraded features from laminate flooring to the gorgeous open kitchen. Super spacious laundry and utility room, large master bedroom with master walk in closet and large master bath. Nice open living room and spacious guest bedrooms with guest bath. Location is prime and so close to all local amenities . DONT WAIT. . call today!!

19. 2020-08-12
    soldstatus $155,000

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Y''all, you will FALL IN LOVE with this wonderful first time home or forever home in SUWANNEE COUNTY! Gorgeous 2008 site built home offering 3 beds/2 bath on near one full acre, wonderful front and back yard perfect for family , pets and outdoor gatherings. Back yard completely fenced , above ground pool and nice detached garage along with an additional storage building. Interior offers a nice open floor plan, with upgraded features from laminate flooring to the gorgeous open kitchen. Super spacious laundry and utility room, large master bedroom with master walk in closet and large master bath. Nice open living room and spacious guest bedrooms with guest bath. Location is prime and so close to all local amenities . DONT WAIT. . call today!!

20. 2020-05-05
    listed $159,900 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Y''all, you will FALL IN LOVE with this wonderful first time home or forever home in SUWANNEE COUNTY! Gorgeous 2008 site built home offering 3 beds/2 bath on near one full acre, wonderful front and back yard perfect for family , pets and outdoor gatherings. Back yard completely fenced , above ground pool and nice detached garage along with an additional storage building. Interior offers a nice open floor plan, with upgraded features from laminate flooring to the gorgeous open kitchen. Super spacious laundry and utility room, large master bedroom with master walk in closet and large master bath. Nice open living room and spacious guest bedrooms with guest bath. Location is prime and so close to all local amenities . DONT WAIT. . call today!!

21. 2020-05-05
    listed $159,900

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Y''all, you will FALL IN LOVE with this wonderful first time home or forever home in SUWANNEE COUNTY! Gorgeous 2008 site built home offering 3 beds/2 bath on near one full acre, wonderful front and back yard perfect for family , pets and outdoor gatherings. Back yard completely fenced , above ground pool and nice detached garage along with an additional storage building. Interior offers a nice open floor plan, with upgraded features from laminate flooring to the gorgeous open kitchen. Super spacious laundry and utility room, large master bedroom with master walk in closet and large master bath. Nice open living room and spacious guest bedrooms with guest bath. Location is prime and so close to all local amenities . DONT WAIT. . call today!!

22. 2018-02-27
    soldstatus $125,000
23. 2017-12-12
    soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,150 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$591/yr (+$49/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$11,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,861
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suwannee
• NCES district ID: 1201830
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,785
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4503
• State rank: #52 of 73 in FL

Livability — Branford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #748
• US rank: #16225

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,550

Population outlook (Suwannee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,226 people
• By 2030: 45,833 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 46,631 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 46,544 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 43,635 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 34,318 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 13% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suwannee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.3% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.3 2012: R+45.0 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.91%
• Current HPI: 181.9427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+107.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $259,000 NFMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $269,000 NFMLS
• 2020-08-12 Sold (MLS) $155,000 DGLMLS
• 2020-08-12 Sold (MLS) $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-05 Listed $159,900 DGLMLS
• 2020-05-05 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-12 Sold (MLS) $125,000 NFMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,559 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.