4256 #14 Highway 147

East Shore, CA 96137

$219,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $57/mo
• Annual: $689/yr
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.12%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($689/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,169 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.