4256 #14 Highway 147 · East Shore, CA 96137

$219,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · Manufactured · 100 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable Lakeside Cabin in Rock Harbor — Lake Almanor's East Shore! Discover your perfect getaway with this updated and charming manufactured cabin located in the desirable Rock Harbor community on the East Shore of Lake Almanor! Enjoy a peek of the lake from your doorstep and take full advantage of the private marina, complete with a dedicated boat slip, boat launch, spacious covered patio, BBQ pit, and inviting beach area — ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This cozy retreat has been thoughtfully updated and features: Full-size stainless steel appliances Newer lighting fixtures and solar tubes for natural brightness. Outdoor storage shed — equipped with a washer and dryer While tax records note 880 sq. ft. , a tasteful remodel has added additional living space (not yet reflected in public records). Designed for low-maintenance living, this cabin offers almost year-round access — typically from April through November, weather permitting. Whether you’re seeking a serene escape or a fun-filled lake lifestyle, this is the perfect spot to unwind and make lasting memories!

Key facts

• Lakeside cabin
• Bbq pit
• Private marina

Tags

• LAKESIDE CABIN
• PRIVATE MARINA
• DEDICATED BOAT SLIP
• BOAT LAUNCH
• COVERED PATIO
• BBQ PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($689/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,169 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Plumas Unified (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #306 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Plumas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Plumas County population projected at -42% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,731 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.12%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $11,709
• Equity at exit: $79,092

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $60,669
• Equity at exit: $108,539

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96137

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $620/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $181	-5% $119	+0% $57	+5% $-5	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $-10	+0% $57	+5% $125	+10% $192
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $113	base $57	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $219,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 80 DOM
18. 2026-03-11
    listed $229,000 Active 1117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1117 chars)

    Adorable Lakeside Cabin in Rock Harbor — Lake Almanor's East Shore! Discover your perfect getaway with this updated and charming manufactured cabin located in the desirable Rock Harbor community on the East Shore of Lake Almanor! Enjoy a peek of the lake from your doorstep and take full advantage of the private marina, complete with a dedicated boat slip, boat launch, spacious covered patio, BBQ pit, and inviting beach area — ideal for relaxing or entertaining. This cozy retreat has been thoughtfully updated and features: Full-size stainless steel appliances Newer lighting fixtures and solar tubes for natural brightness. Outdoor storage shed — equipped with a washer and dryer While tax records note 880 sq. ft. , a tasteful remodel has added additional living space (not yet reflected in public records). Designed for low-maintenance living, this cabin offers almost year-round access — typically from April through November, weather permitting. Whether you’re seeking a serene escape or a fun-filled lake lifestyle, this is the perfect spot to unwind and make lasting memories!

19. 2025-06-26
    price $205,000
20. 2025-05-25
    price $219,000
21. 2024-08-18
    price $229,000
22. 2024-08-01
    price $199,000
23. 2024-05-17
    price $225,000
24. 2021-10-19
    soldstatus $170,000
25. 2021-08-29
    listed $179,000
26. 2018-08-30
    listed $190,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $620 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,044/yr (+$87/mo · 168.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$620
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,639
• − Management: −$1,639
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$3,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$755
• After-tax cash flow: $1,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Plumas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631170
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,935
• Composite: 27.89/100
• National rank: #6870
• State rank: #306 of 517 in CA

Livability — East Shore

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1169
• US rank: #25903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Shore, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Plumas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,564 people
• By 2030: 14,014 · -10.0%
• By 2040: 11,197 · -28.1%
• By 2050: 9,069 · -41.7%
• By 2075: 5,573 · -64.2%
• By 2100: 3,392 · -78.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Plumas

• 2024 margin: R (+16.9) · D 39.9% · R 56.9% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -12.0pp · 2024: -16.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.9 2020: R+16.7 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.38%
• Current HPI: 153.1005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+20.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $229,000 PAR
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $205,000 PAR
• 2025-05-25 Price Changed $219,000 PAR
• 2024-08-18 Price Changed $229,000 PAR
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $199,000 PAR
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $225,000 PAR
• 2021-10-19 Sold (MLS) $170,000 PAR
• 2021-08-29 Listed $179,000 PAR
• 2018-08-30 Listed $190,000 PAR

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $620 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.