102 Sage Trl

Mullica Hill, NJ 08062

$385,000D-

2 bd · None ba · 1,372 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$778
• HOA: −$83
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-115/mo
• Annual: $-1,375/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-115 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $350k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#211 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Harrison Township School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #99 of 472 in NJ (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harrison Township Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #209 of 1,303 statewide, top 19%, 770 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 10% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $305k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.7% in Mullica Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.