403 Middle Rd

Bayport, NY 11705

$599,996D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · Built 1877 · SingleFamily · Pending · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,016/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$570
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$843
• Net cashflow: $-543/mo
• Annual: $-6,521/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $167,999

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-543 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $504k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (33.1% below list).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $402k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#356 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bayport-Blue Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #58 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1877 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1877 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.