403 Middle Rd · Bayport, NY 11705

$599,996

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1877 6,970 sqft lot $319/sqft · 27% below area Est $822k · 27% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, location! This charming 3 bed, 1 bath circa 1877 home is filled with warmth, character, and classic details that are hard to find today. Begin your visit on the fabulous screened-in porch, complete with a porch swing—the perfect place to sit, relax, and enjoy morning coffee, afternoon reading, or peaceful evenings. Inside, the home welcomes you with sun-filled living spaces, hardwood floors throughout, and two fireplaces—one in the inviting living room and another adding cozy charm to the primary bedroom. The gas cooking oven and gas heat provide modern comfort while maintaining the home’s original historic appeal. Timeless features continue throughout, including built-in bookshelves, glass door knobs, antique light fixtures, and a vintage circa door knocker, all reflecting the craftsmanship of its era. A private driveway and an oversized detached garage offers ample storage, workspace, or hobby potential. Perfectly situated just moments from Heckscher State Park, beautiful beaches, convenient shopping, and popular restaurants, this home offers an ideal blend of tranquility and accessibility. With so much charm, character, and history wrapped into one property, this is your chance to own a piece of history that's ready for your own touch—and it won’t last!

Key facts

• Gas cooking oven
• Screened-in porch
• Private driveway

Tags

• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES
• GAS COOKING OVEN
• TWO FIREPLACES
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• OVERSIZED DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-543 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $504k (16.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $402k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#356 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bayport-Blue Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #58 of 590 in NY (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1877 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $401,648 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1877 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $821,611
• List price: $599,996
• Delta: -26.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
84 Oakwood Ave	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,919 (+2%)	3mo	$575,000	$300	78
31 Baywood Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,877 (-0%)	11mo	$820,000	$437	70
115 Academy St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+4%)	2mo	$925,000	$474	66
90 Academy St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-4%)	8mo	$846,000	$470	60
28 Locust	0.47mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,800 (-4%)	1mo	$880,000	$489	55
110 Suydam Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (-4%)	24mo	$570,000	$317	53
231 Oakwood Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,946 (+4%)	19mo	$810,000	$416	52
190 Academy St	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,034 (+8%)	6mo	$825,000	$406	49
163 Academy St	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-12%)	6mo	$661,000	$399	46
67 Snedecor Ave	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,662 (-12%)	10mo	$790,000	$475	45
39 Paulanna Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,074 (+10%)	6mo	$774,000	$373	44
60 Gerritsen Ave	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,100 (+12%)	21mo	$836,000	$398	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-132,039
• Equity at exit: $89,461

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-160,371
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $167,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11705

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$320 /mo · $3,840/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$843
• Net cashflow: $-543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,704

Max offer price $504,000

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,999
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Henry St Sayville, NY	3.0	1.5	1353	$3,400	$2.51	1d	1	1.15mi
9 Cleveland Ave Sayville, NY	4.0	1.5	1500	$4,100	$2.73	1d	1	1.17mi
333 Candee Ave Sayville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	1025	$4,445	$4.34	1d	1	1.23mi
217 Greeley Ave Islip, NY	4.0	2.5	2200	$4,250	$1.93	10d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $599,996 Pending 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $599,996 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $599,996 Active 191 DOM
4. 2025-11-20
   listed $599,996 Active 1321-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1321 chars)

   Location, location! This charming 3 bed, 1 bath circa 1877 home is filled with warmth, character, and classic details that are hard to find today. Begin your visit on the fabulous screened-in porch, complete with a porch swing—the perfect place to sit, relax, and enjoy morning coffee, afternoon reading, or peaceful evenings. Inside, the home welcomes you with sun-filled living spaces, hardwood floors throughout, and two fireplaces—one in the inviting living room and another adding cozy charm to the primary bedroom. The gas cooking oven and gas heat provide modern comfort while maintaining the home’s original historic appeal. Timeless features continue throughout, including built-in bookshelves, glass door knobs, antique light fixtures, and a vintage circa door knocker, all reflecting the craftsmanship of its era. A private driveway and an oversized detached garage offers ample storage, workspace, or hobby potential. Perfectly situated just moments from Heckscher State Park, beautiful beaches, convenient shopping, and popular restaurants, this home offers an ideal blend of tranquility and accessibility. With so much charm, character, and history wrapped into one property, this is your chance to own a piece of history that's ready for your own touch—and it won’t last!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,840 · $320/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,990 · $582/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,150/yr (+$263/mo · 82.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,198
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$3,840
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,856
• − Management: −$3,856
• − Depreciation: −$17,454
• Taxable loss: −$17,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,180
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bayport-Blue Point Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3604110
• Math proficiency: 79% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $86,852
• Composite: 69.95/100
• National rank: #283
• State rank: #58 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bayport

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #5993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayport, NY
• City population: 8,256
• Population (ZIP): 8,256

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -157.31%
• Current HPI: 331.4242
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Listed $599,996 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,840 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.