1847 Shoshoni Dr

Red Feather Lakes, CO 80545

$519,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,836 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,890/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax + insurance: −$511
• HOA: −$110
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$817
• Net cashflow: $-270/mo
• Annual: $-3,241/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $145,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $519k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $471k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $389k (25.1% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $389k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $698 of equity ($4k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#344 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Red Feather Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.