1847 Shoshoni Dr · Red Feather Lakes, CO 80545

$519,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1983 2.33 ac lot Est $811k · 36% under $110/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE IMPROVEMENT Contemporary Raised Ranch year-round home completely updated, immaculately maintained. 2.33 acres with Black Mountain and Crystal Lake views. Open floor plan, with main floor master & bath. New granite in kitchen. New furnace with whole house humidifier and air cleaner and WiFi-control. New on-demand water heater. New pellet stove. All furniture. New roof and gutters w/leaf guard. New exterior stain. Large deck with fantastic views. 2-car garage, 2 ATVs, row boat, snow blower.

Key facts

• 5-piece bath
• Wraparound deck
• Fenced area for pets

Tags

• MAIN-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• 5-PIECE BATH
• TILED KITCHENETTE AREA
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• FENCED AREA FOR PETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $799; Additional annual Crystal Lakes water & sewer fee of $515; Association fees include common amenities, trash, snow removal, and management; Association transfer fees apply; Community features include playground, park, and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage (oversized)
• Utilities: Well water (meter installed); No water rights; Septic tank and septic field; Electricity available; Propane (PV COOP); Satellite available; High-speed internet available; Trash service via Crystal Lakes (included in HOA fees)
• Home design: Raised ranch; Residential single family residence; Not new construction (previously owned); Main floor bath; Main level bedroom; Main level laundry
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Partially finished walk-out basement; Built-in radon mitigation in basement; Fireplace tools included
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard (chain link); Recreation association required; Oversized garage; Wooded lot with evergreen and deciduous trees; Sloping lot; House faces north; Unincorporated location; Lake access; River nearby; Gravel road frontage; Privately maintained private road (to county standards)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all conforming)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 three-quarter bathroom; Full bath on main level; Full bath in basement; Three-quarter bath on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Baseboard heating; Two or more heat sources; Humidity control; Pellet stove; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Separate dining room; Cathedral ceilings; Open floor plan; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Jack & Jill bathroom; High ceilings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $519k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $471k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $389k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $389k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Red Feather Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#344 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $698 of equity ($4k loan paydown + $-3k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $380k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $388,968 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $811,096
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
796 Manso Way	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,556 (-10%)	21mo	$730,000	$286	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-45,909
• Equity at exit: $136,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-9,209
• Equity at exit: $152,966

Cash invested: $145,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80545

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,722
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,540/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$817
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,232

Max offer price $471,283

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-123	+0% $-270	+5% $-417	+10% $-564
Rent	-10% $-577	-5% $-424	+0% $-270	+5% $-116	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-138	base $-270	+0.5pp $-405	+1.0pp $-541

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,750
• Closing costs: $15,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternet

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $519,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $519,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $519,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $519,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $519,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $520,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-14
   listed $520,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,540 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,540 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥80°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,072
• − Property taxes: −$3,540
• − Insurance: −$2,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,734
• − Management: −$3,734
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$15,098
• Taxable loss: −$12,418
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,980
• After-tax cash flow: $-261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poudre School District R-1
• NCES district ID: 0803990
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,281
• Composite: 45.5/100
• National rank: #2610
• State rank: #10 of 86 in CO

Livability — Red Feather Lakes

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #23247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 913

Population outlook (Larimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,361 people
• By 2030: 457,762 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 542,310 · +30.6%
• By 2050: 627,048 · +51.0%
• By 2075: 833,722 · +100.7%
• By 2100: 952,590 · +129.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Larimer

• 2024 margin: D (+17.6) · D 57.4% · R 39.8% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 17.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.6 2020: D+15.4 2016: D+4.9 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 280.4591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+131.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $520,000 IRES
• 2026-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $380,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $389,900 Public Records
• 2019-05-17 Sold (MLS) $389,900 IRES
• 2018-11-14 Contingent — IRES
• 2018-09-20 Price Changed $389,900 IRES
• 2018-08-12 Listed $399,900 IRES
• 2015-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $239,900 Public Records
• 2015-05-19 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2015-05-19 Sold (MLS) $239,900 IRES
• 2015-04-06 Contingent — IRES
• 2015-02-14 Listed $239,900 IRES
• 2014-12-15 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2014-07-14 Relisted — IRES
• 2014-07-14 Price Changed $239,900 IRES
• 2014-07-12 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2014-06-05 Price Changed $249,900 IRES
• 2014-01-11 Relisted — IRES
• 2013-12-19 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2013-06-18 Listed $259,900 IRES
• 2005-04-08 Sold (MLS) $200,000 IRES
• 2004-03-08 Listed $215,000 IRES
• 2003-08-14 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2003-02-15 Listed $224,900 IRES
• 2002-12-31 Listing Removed — IRES
• 2002-03-14 Listed $224,900 IRES

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,540 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.