8977 Tweeddale Dr

Fairplay, GA 30187

$159,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,808/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$277
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $318/mo
• Annual: $3,818/yr
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.58%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: South Douglas Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #323 of 1,228 statewide, top 26%, 520 students, 31% FRL); Fairplay Middle School (math 25% / reading 54%, grade F, #147 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 537 students, 36% FRL); Alexander High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #162 of 424 statewide, top 40%, 1,823 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 53% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $159k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.2% in Fairplay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.