8977 Tweeddale Dr · Fairplay, GA 30187

$159,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1987 0.45 ac lot $106/sqft · 41% below area Est $271k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

Key facts

• Private bath
• Spacious family room
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• BRIGHT FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• WELL SIZED SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.2% in Fairplay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Douglas County (suburban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 174 in GA (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: South Douglas Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #323 of 1,228 statewide, top 26%, 520 students, 31% FRL); Fairplay Middle School (math 25% / reading 54%, grade F, #147 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 537 students, 36% FRL); Alexander High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #162 of 424 statewide, top 40%, 1,823 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 53% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $159k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.58%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,623
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -41.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7646 Leven Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,508 (+1%)	20mo	$270,000	$179	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,465
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $21,476
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30187

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,523/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $408	-5% $363	+0% $318	+5% $273	+10% $228
Rent	-10% $175	-5% $247	+0% $318	+5% $390	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $359	base $318	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Under Contract 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

3. 2026-05-04
   status Back On Market 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

4. 2026-05-04
   status Active 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

5. 2026-04-24
   status Under Contract 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

6. 2026-04-24
   status Pending 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

7. 2026-04-17
   price $159,000 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

8. 2026-04-17
   price $159,000 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

9. 2026-03-19
   price $189,000 340-char remark

   Show marketing remark (340 chars)

   Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

10. 2026-03-19
    price $189,000 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

11. 2026-02-13
    listed $199,000 New 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

12. 2026-02-13
    listed $199,000 Active 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Move-in ready home in Winston! 8977 Tweeddale offers a bright, functional floor plan with a spacious family room, dining area, and well-appointed kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The primary suite features a private bath and generous closet space, with well-sized secondary bedrooms perfect for family, guests, or a home office

13. 2026-01-18
    historical $1,449
14. 2026-01-06
    listed $1,449
15. 2024-11-04
    historical $1,349
16. 2024-10-30
    price $1,349
17. 2024-10-18
    price $1,399
18. 2024-10-09
    price $1,429
19. 2024-10-03
    listed $1,449
20. 1998-09-23
    soldstatus $74,900
21. 1998-03-24
    soldstatus $47,420
22. 1993-11-18
    soldstatus $58,939
23. 1993-02-04
    soldstatus $58,088
24. 1988-02-11
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,523 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,523 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,523
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $1,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$330
• After-tax cash flow: $3,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas County
• NCES district ID: 1301860
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,335
• Composite: 25.84/100
• National rank: #7353
• State rank: #92 of 174 in GA

Livability — Fairplay

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,130

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,022 people
• By 2030: 173,956 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 196,859 · +20.8%
• By 2050: 220,017 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 279,831 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 322,702 · +97.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+31.4) · D 65.4% · R 33.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +29.6pp toward D · 2008: 1.8pp · 2024: 31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+31.4 2020: D+25.1 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.56%
• Current HPI: 270.0582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+205.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $159,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $159,000 FMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $189,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $189,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $199,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-18 Rental Removed $1,449 Tricon
• 2026-01-06 Listed for Rent $1,449 Tricon
• 2024-11-04 Rental Removed $1,349 RENT.
• 2024-10-30 Price Changed $1,349 RENT.
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $1,399 RENT.
• 2024-10-09 Price Changed $1,429 RENT.
• 2024-10-03 Listed for Rent $1,449 RENT.
• 1998-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $74,900 Public Records
• 1998-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $47,420 Public Records
• 1993-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $58,939 Public Records
• 1993-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $58,088 Public Records
• 1988-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,523 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.