783 Blue Jay Rd

Rutherford, PA 17111

$199,900C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,635 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,210/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$361
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $337/mo
• Annual: $4,041/yr
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.22%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#1,007 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swatara Ms (math 13% / reading 34%, grade F, #424 of 512 statewide, top 83%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Central Dauphin East Shs (math 50% / reading 15%, grade F, #330 of 437 statewide, top 76%, 1,590 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 33% district-wide (66 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Central Dauphin SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.8% in Rutherford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.