783 Blue Jay Rd · Rutherford, PA 17111

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,635 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1980 7,405 sqft lot $122/sqft · 36% below area Est $311k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sweet home for sale in need of a little love! While this home is selling "as is" and this gem may look a bit rough, it is move-in-ready really. It would like new flooring throughout, paint on inside, a power wash on exterior and maybe some paint there too. A new deck would be nice - it has nice privacy and view behind - and perhaps a new A/C condensor unit. BUT, seller tells me everything works - all appliances, heat, water heater, even the A/C! The roof was replaced about a year ago. Several windows were replaced in recent years, but not all. The main level bonus / family room is on its own heating system (electric baseboard), so great for a workout room or special needs space.

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with one garage space and additional storage area; Driveway with four parking spaces (total of 5 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric-powered cooling and hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Main entrance faces east; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation with active radon mitigation
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range/oven; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level (Master Bedroom, Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil fuel); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Full, unfinished basement; Living room; Dining room; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric dryer; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#1,007 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swatara Ms (math 13% / reading 34%, grade F, #424 of 512 statewide, top 83%, 539 students, 99% FRL); Central Dauphin East Shs (math 50% / reading 15%, grade F, #330 of 437 statewide, top 76%, 1,590 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 33% district-wide (66 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Central Dauphin SD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.22%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,155
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -35.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
783 Blue Jay Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,635 (0%)	1mo	$261,500	$160	99
830 Cardinal Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,602 (-2%)	13mo	$275,000	$172	77
7770 Robin Rd	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,690 (+3%)	6mo	$290,000	$172	73
983 Blue Jay Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,555 (-5%)	9mo	$267,000	$172	71
7780 Robin Rd	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,690 (+3%)	13mo	$310,000	$183	67
8108 Spruce Dr	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,686 (+3%)	8mo	$199,900	$119	66
585 Cardinal Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,690 (+3%)	18mo	$321,200	$190	65
7690 Catherine Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,868 (+14%)	1mo	$430,000	$230	63
545 Cardinal Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,800 (+10%)	10mo	$268,000	$149	61
7981 Chambers Hill Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-6%)	7mo	$375,000	$244	61
550 Ridge Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,636 (+0%)	17mo	$227,000	$139	55
8345 Paxton St	0.75mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,512 (-8%)	8mo	$183,200	$121	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,191
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $26,916
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17111

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,210 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$278 /mo · $3,331/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $393	+0% $337	+5% $280	+10% $224
Rent	-10% $162	-5% $249	+0% $337	+5% $424	+10% $511
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $388	base $337	+0.5pp $285	+1.0pp $232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7546 Stephen Dr Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.5	1740	$2,050	$1.18	44d	1	0.95mi
7466 Stephen Dr Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,499	$1.25	45d	1	1.04mi
7466 Stephen Dr Harrisburg, PA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1626	$2,399	$1.47	15d	1	1.04mi
7214 Huntingdon St Harrisburg, PA	2.0	2.5	1374	$1,900	$1.38	44d	1	1.05mi
6550 Somerset St Harrisburg, PA	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,250	$1.51	15d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 831-char remark
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $199,900 Active 831-char remark
3. 2026-04-28
   historical $199,900 831-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,331 · $278/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,331 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,331
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $934
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $3,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4205400
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,792
• Composite: 36.46/100
• National rank: #4664
• State rank: #305 of 539 in PA

Livability — Rutherford

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #11116

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 35,818
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,744
• Household income: $86,385
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 756.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 22% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · India, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.67%
• Current HPI: 236.6936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.76%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+30.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $261,500 Public Records
• 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) $261,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-28 Coming Soon $199,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,331 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.