None bd · None ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built —
· Condo
· Coming Soon
· 97 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,250/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,117
Tax + insurance
−$355
HOA
−$459
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,312
Net cashflow
$3,006/mo
Annual
$36,077/yr
Cap rate
23.23%
Cash-on-cash
60.49%
DSCR
3.69
1% rule
2.93%
Cash to close
$59,640
Investor read
This is a condo listed at $213k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($36k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $213k).
It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $194k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.2%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($167k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8SE1XQ6XV04KFA
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29