18365 Hwy 52

Kinston, AL 36477

$156,325D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,202 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Active · 92 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$820
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-184/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $43,771

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-184/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (25.0% below list).
• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#382 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Geneva County (rural): math 22% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #39 of 129 in AL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Geneva County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Geneva County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?