813 SE Kierra Pl

Madras, OR 97741

$240,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,490 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,616/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-275/mo
• Annual: $-3,304/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (32.7% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#180 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Jefferson County SD 509J (rural): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #55 of 58 in OR (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Buff Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #164 of 412 statewide, top 40%, 274 students, 94% FRL); Jefferson County Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #84 of 128 statewide, top 66%, 473 students, 94% FRL); Madras High School (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #114 of 143 statewide, top 80%, 781 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 77% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Madras — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.