813 SE Kierra Pl · Madras, OR 97741

$240,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,490 sqft · Townhouse public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2005 3,920 sqft lot $161/sqft · at area comps Est $245k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is currently rented and tenants may like to stay, but are set to move if necessary.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Flex space
• Dining area

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• DINING AREA
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is currently rented
• HOA & community: Association with annual fee ($400); Community clubhouse; CCRs in place

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Driveway; On-street parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detectors; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities available; Easements for utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two levels; No basement; 1 common wall; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Built in 2005; Frame construction; Stemwall foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Vinyl window frames; Fenced lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Zoned heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Fiberglass stall shower; Kitchen island; Linen closet; Shower/tub combo; Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-275 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Madras — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#180 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
• Jefferson County SD 509J (rural): math 19% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #55 of 58 in OR (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Buff Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #164 of 412 statewide, top 40%, 274 students, 94% FRL); Jefferson County Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #84 of 128 statewide, top 66%, 473 students, 94% FRL); Madras High School (math 8% / reading 47%, grade F, #114 of 143 statewide, top 80%, 781 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 77% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,551 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,260
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -2.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
844 SE Maliah Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,512 (+2%)	5mo	$202,000	$134	92
921 SE Kierra Pl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-6%)	11mo	$265,000	$189	74
837 SE Kierra Pl	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-8%)	13mo	$258,000	$187	74
857 SE Maui Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-7%)	13mo	$260,000	$187	70
968 SE Kierra Pl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-15%)	9mo	$257,900	$204	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $113,131
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $346,861
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97741

• Home prices YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,616 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,964

Max offer price $191,355

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
335 SE 8th St Madras, OR	3.0	1.0	1178	$1,550	$1.32	44d	1	0.53mi
366 SW M St Madras, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,725	$1.92	44d	4	0.67mi
137 NE Pine St Unit 137 Madras, OR	2.0	1.0	937	$1,350	$1.44	44d	1	0.98mi
141 NE Pine St Unit 141 Madras, OR	2.0	1.0	937	$1,250	$1.33	44d	1	0.98mi
1392 SE Yarrow Ave Madras, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,995	$2.21	44d	12	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $240,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $244,900 209-char remark
18. 2026-04-25
    listed $252,000 Active 209-char remark
19. 2025-07-14
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Home is currently rented and tenants may like to stay, but are set to move if necessary.

20. 2025-07-14
    soldstatus $230,000

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Home is currently rented and tenants may like to stay, but are set to move if necessary.

21. 2025-06-16
    status Pending 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Home is currently rented and tenants may like to stay, but are set to move if necessary.

22. 2025-04-11
    listed $239,900 Active 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    Home is currently rented and tenants may like to stay, but are set to move if necessary.

23. 2022-01-13
    historical
24. 2021-12-27
    price $239,990
25. 2021-12-13
    listed $249,900 Active
26. 2014-08-01
    soldstatus $69,990
27. 2008-09-03
    soldstatus $67,500
28. 2008-09-03
    soldstatus $67,500
29. 2008-07-16
    historical
30. 2008-07-16
    historical
31. 2008-02-20
    listed $67,500
32. 2008-02-20
    listed $67,500
33. 2005-08-22
    soldstatus $125,000
34. 2005-06-27
    historical
35. 2005-01-21
    listed $123,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,920 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,328 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,920
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,551
• − Management: −$1,551
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$7,658
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,838
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County SD 509J
• NCES district ID: 4106740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,663
• Composite: 20.9/100
• National rank: #8488
• State rank: #55 of 58 in OR

Livability — Madras

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #180
• US rank: #11012

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madras, OR
• County: Jefferson County · 13,663 people
• City population: 13,663
• Metro: The Dalles, OR
• Population (ZIP): 13,663
• Household income: $70,983
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 466.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,040 people
• By 2030: 24,631 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 25,499 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 25,801 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 25,682 · +6.8%
• By 2100: 22,222 · -7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 19% Native American 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 33.6% · R 63.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.68%
• Current HPI: 590.9612
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Dalles, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+94.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $240,000 MLSCO
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $244,900 MLSCO
• 2026-04-25 Listed $252,000 MLSCO
• 2025-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-14 Sold (MLS) $230,000 MLSCO
• 2025-06-16 Pending — MLSCO
• 2025-04-11 Listed $239,900 MLSCO
• 2022-01-13 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2021-12-27 Price Changed $239,990 MLSCO
• 2021-12-13 Listed $249,900 MLSCO
• 2014-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $69,990 Public Records
• 2008-09-03 Sold (MLS) $67,500 RMLS
• 2008-09-03 Sold (MLS) $67,500 MLSCO
• 2008-07-16 Delisted — RMLS
• 2008-07-16 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2008-02-20 Listed $67,500 RMLS
• 2008-02-20 Listed $67,500 MLSCO
• 2005-08-22 Sold (MLS) $125,000 MLSCO
• 2005-06-27 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2005-01-21 Listed $123,500 MLSCO

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,920 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.