3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,304 sqft ·
Built 2012
· Manufactured
· Active
· 36 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,712/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,673
Tax + insurance
−$436
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$570
Net cashflow
$34/mo
Annual
$410/yr
Cap rate
6.42%
Cash-on-cash
0.46%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$89,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $319k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($410/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (15.0% below list).
It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $271k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $22k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#140 in TX, #4,008 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Greenwood ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #220 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Greenwood El (795 students, 45% FRL); Greenwood H S (math 51% / reading 53%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 808 students, 33% FRL).
Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $89k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-8SZHBW5K89P9XW
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29