3225 Shumate Rd

Ekron, KY 40117

$160,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1984 · Other · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,669/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $318/mo
• Annual: $3,820/yr
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.31%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#291 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ekron Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 376 students, 54% FRL); Stuart Pepper Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #51 of 217 statewide, top 24%, 772 students, 48% FRL); Meade County High School (math 30% / reading 42%, grade F, #71 of 254 statewide, top 28%, 1,515 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $160k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.