3225 Shumate Rd · Ekron, KY 40117

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Other · 28 Days on market

Built 1984 1.91 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this scenic country home away from the hustle of city life. Located just minutes outside of the town of Ekron, KY this rare property is perfect for the buyer looking to make the home their own. This large double wide will not go FHA or VA and is being sold as-is, but does offer over 1,400 sq ft, walkout basement, and privacy. Come take a look today!

Key facts

• 1.91 acre lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 28 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on about 1.91 acres
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story entry (mobile home)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Basement with walk-out access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#291 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ekron Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 376 students, 54% FRL); Stuart Pepper Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #51 of 217 statewide, top 24%, 772 students, 48% FRL); Meade County High School (math 30% / reading 42%, grade F, #71 of 254 statewide, top 28%, 1,515 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $160k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.31%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $59,532
• Equity at exit: $93,241

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $161,294
• Equity at exit: $163,089

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40117

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $340/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $160,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-11
    listed $160,000 Active 362-char remark
11. 2014-10-28
    soldstatus $47,290

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,036/yr (+$86/mo · 304.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$340
• − Insurance: −$1,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,603
• − Management: −$1,603
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $1,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$306
• After-tax cash flow: $3,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meade County
• NCES district ID: 2104050
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,628
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #4265
• State rank: #21 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ekron

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #14056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,089

Population outlook (Meade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,977 people
• By 2030: 26,162 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 24,029 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 21,658 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 16,994 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 15,586 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.26%
• Current HPI: 233.0216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+238.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $160,000 HKARMLS
• 2014-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $47,290 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $340 · -62.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.