6330 N Orange Blossom Ln

Casas Adobes, AZ 85741

$198,500D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 360 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,641/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,041
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$72
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $20/mo
• Annual: $237/yr
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $55,580

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($237/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.3% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#8 in AZ, #2,353 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: amenities D.
• Flowing Wells Unified District (4405) (suburban): math 23% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #143 of 249 in AZ (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: J Robert Hendricks Elementary School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #339 of 1,109 statewide, top 32%, 469 students, 61% FRL); Flowing Wells Junior High School (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 818 students, 74% FRL); Flowing Wells High School (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #208 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 1,694 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $134k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Casas Adobes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.