4225 Baldwin Rd

Metamora, MI 48455

$254,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,128/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $138/mo
• Annual: $1,655/yr
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $71,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#447 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lapeer Community Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #202 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turrill Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #685 of 1,397 statewide, top 51%, 391 students, 58% FRL); Rolland Warner Campus 67 (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #317 of 493 statewide, top 65%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Lapeer High School (math 29% / reading 55%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 1,196 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in Metamora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.