4225 Baldwin Rd · Metamora, MI 48455

$254,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1975 1.00 ac lot Est $258k · at est. ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for an affordable, updated Metamora ranch home? Here it is! Whether starting out or downsizing, here may be the one you're looking for. All 3 beds and living room have new carpet, entire house newly painted, entire new bathroom, new living room window, exterior paint, new garage door opener and so much more to offer. Kitchen has great counter and cabinet space, fridge, dishwasher and stove, dining area with view out sliding door looking into the backyard with mature trees and nature. Full unfinished basement has washer and dryer and an opportunity to make this area whatever you'd like. Call for more info or to make a viewing appointment. Please allow up to 72 hours for any/all offers to be reviewed. B & BATVAI

Key facts

• New bathroom
• New carpet
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• NEW BATHROOM
• NEW LIVING ROOM WINDOW
• NEW GARAGE DOOR OPENER
• VIEW OUT SLIDING DOOR
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Gravel road access; Lot roughly 1 acre (160 x 300)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage with direct access and garage door opener (about 2.5 spaces); Garage faces front
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Exterior lighting; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Lighting; Full unfinished basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.4% in Metamora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#447 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lapeer Community Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #202 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turrill Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #685 of 1,397 statewide, top 51%, 391 students, 58% FRL); Rolland Warner Campus 67 (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #317 of 493 statewide, top 65%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Lapeer High School (math 29% / reading 55%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 1,196 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $212,787 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.32%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,580
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4225 Baldwin Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-1%)	1mo	$255,000	$243	98
4225 Baldwin Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-1%)	1mo	$255,000	$243	98

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-32,625
• Equity at exit: $38,006

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,517
• Equity at exit: $22,039

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48455

• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,202/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,953

Max offer price $254,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $210	+0% $138	+5% $66	+10% $-6
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $54	+0% $138	+5% $222	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $203	base $138	+0.5pp $72	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, updated Metamora ranch home? Here it is! Whether starting out or downsizing, here may be the one you're looking for. All 3 beds and living room have new carpet, entire house newly painted, entire new bathroom, new living room window, exterior paint, new garage door opener and so much more to offer. Kitchen has great counter and cabinet space, fridge, dishwasher and stove, dining area with view out sliding door looking into the backyard with mature trees and nature. Full unfinished basement has washer and dryer and an opportunity to make this area whatever you'd like. Call for more info or to make a viewing appointment. Please allow up to 72 hours for any/all offers to be reviewed. B & BATVAI

2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, updated Metamora ranch home? Here it is! Whether starting out or downsizing, here may be the one you're looking for. All 3 beds and living room have new carpet, entire house newly painted, entire new bathroom, new living room window, exterior paint, new garage door opener and so much more to offer. Kitchen has great counter and cabinet space, fridge, dishwasher and stove, dining area with view out sliding door looking into the backyard with mature trees and nature. Full unfinished basement has washer and dryer and an opportunity to make this area whatever you'd like. Call for more info or to make a viewing appointment. Please allow up to 72 hours for any/all offers to be reviewed. B & BATVAI

3. 2026-04-27
   price $254,900 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, updated Metamora ranch home? Here it is! Whether starting out or downsizing, here may be the one you're looking for. All 3 beds and living room have new carpet, entire house newly painted, entire new bathroom, new living room window, exterior paint, new garage door opener and so much more to offer. Kitchen has great counter and cabinet space, fridge, dishwasher and stove, dining area with view out sliding door looking into the backyard with mature trees and nature. Full unfinished basement has washer and dryer and an opportunity to make this area whatever you'd like. Call for more info or to make a viewing appointment. Please allow up to 72 hours for any/all offers to be reviewed. B & BATVAI

4. 2026-04-27
   price $254,900

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, updated Metamora ranch home? Here it is! Whether starting out or downsizing, here may be the one you're looking for. All 3 beds and living room have new carpet, entire house newly painted, entire new bathroom, new living room window, exterior paint, new garage door opener and so much more to offer. Kitchen has great counter and cabinet space, fridge, dishwasher and stove, dining area with view out sliding door looking into the backyard with mature trees and nature. Full unfinished basement has washer and dryer and an opportunity to make this area whatever you'd like. Call for more info or to make a viewing appointment. Please allow up to 72 hours for any/all offers to be reviewed. B & BATVAI

5. 2026-03-26
   price $284,900 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, updated Metamora ranch home? Here it is! Whether starting out or downsizing, here may be the one you're looking for. All 3 beds and living room have new carpet, entire house newly painted, entire new bathroom, new living room window, exterior paint, new garage door opener and so much more to offer. Kitchen has great counter and cabinet space, fridge, dishwasher and stove, dining area with view out sliding door looking into the backyard with mature trees and nature. Full unfinished basement has washer and dryer and an opportunity to make this area whatever you'd like. Call for more info or to make a viewing appointment. Please allow up to 72 hours for any/all offers to be reviewed. B & BATVAI

6. 2026-03-26
   price $284,900

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, updated Metamora ranch home? Here it is! Whether starting out or downsizing, here may be the one you're looking for. All 3 beds and living room have new carpet, entire house newly painted, entire new bathroom, new living room window, exterior paint, new garage door opener and so much more to offer. Kitchen has great counter and cabinet space, fridge, dishwasher and stove, dining area with view out sliding door looking into the backyard with mature trees and nature. Full unfinished basement has washer and dryer and an opportunity to make this area whatever you'd like. Call for more info or to make a viewing appointment. Please allow up to 72 hours for any/all offers to be reviewed. B & BATVAI

7. 2026-02-27
   listed $299,900 Active 731-char remark

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, updated Metamora ranch home? Here it is! Whether starting out or downsizing, here may be the one you're looking for. All 3 beds and living room have new carpet, entire house newly painted, entire new bathroom, new living room window, exterior paint, new garage door opener and so much more to offer. Kitchen has great counter and cabinet space, fridge, dishwasher and stove, dining area with view out sliding door looking into the backyard with mature trees and nature. Full unfinished basement has washer and dryer and an opportunity to make this area whatever you'd like. Call for more info or to make a viewing appointment. Please allow up to 72 hours for any/all offers to be reviewed. B & BATVAI

8. 2026-02-27
   listed $299,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (731 chars)

   Looking for an affordable, updated Metamora ranch home? Here it is! Whether starting out or downsizing, here may be the one you're looking for. All 3 beds and living room have new carpet, entire house newly painted, entire new bathroom, new living room window, exterior paint, new garage door opener and so much more to offer. Kitchen has great counter and cabinet space, fridge, dishwasher and stove, dining area with view out sliding door looking into the backyard with mature trees and nature. Full unfinished basement has washer and dryer and an opportunity to make this area whatever you'd like. Call for more info or to make a viewing appointment. Please allow up to 72 hours for any/all offers to be reviewed. B & BATVAI

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,202 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,564 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,361/yr (+$113/mo · 113.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$1,202
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,043
• − Management: −$2,043
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$2,722
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$653
• After-tax cash flow: $2,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lapeer Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621180
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,749
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5113
• State rank: #202 of 540 in MI

Livability — Metamora

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #447
• US rank: #12557

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,849
• Population (ZIP): 7,849

Population outlook (Lapeer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,826 people
• By 2030: 89,535 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 86,695 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 80,566 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 65,783 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 46,584 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lapeer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 29.5% · R 69.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.50%
• Current HPI: 191.9058
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $254,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $254,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $284,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $284,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-27 Listed $299,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-27 Listed $299,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,202 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.