21048 Parson Creek Rd

Alger, WA 98284

$509,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,473/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,669
• Tax + insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-1,207/mo
• Annual: $-14,487/yr
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.16%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $142,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $509k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (41.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (51.4% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $247k (51.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $51k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#527 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Samish Elementary School (176 students, 49% FRL); Cascade Middle School (697 students, 58% FRL); Sedro Woolley Senior High School (1,276 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$87k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.4% in Alger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.