21048 Parson Creek Rd · Alger, WA 98284

$509,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1995 1.50 ac lot $337/sqft · 6% below area Est $542k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning home is nestled on approximately 1.5 serene acres in the picturesque Skagit County, just at the edge of the majestic Cascade Mountains. Every inch of this home has been thoughtfully remodeled, featuring brand new wood plank floors and a beautifully updated kitchen with sleek new cabinets and countertops. The home offers a spacious living area plus an additional flexible space—perfect as a dining room or gathering room. All bedrooms feature brand new carpet, and both bathrooms have been exquisitely updated, including a primary bath with a walk-in shower. The living room is anchored by a new sliding glass door that opens up to a stunning, brand new Trex deck—ideal fo

Key facts

• Flexible space
• Cozy fire pit
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• NEW TREX DECK
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• COZY FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional, FHA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 covered/carport space); RV parking
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Individual private well (water); Septic tank (sewer); PSE power; Verizon cable and internet; Electric water heater (located in closet)
• Home design: Manufactured on land (double wide); One level; Main-level entry; Has a view; Liberty Independence model
• Construction: Built in 2007 (effective year); Wood construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier, slab foundation with tie downs; Manufactured house / double wide
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Patio; Garden space; RV parking; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 2 showers; 1 bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heat pump (heating and cooling)
• Interior features: Dining room; Walk-in closet(s); Water heater (closet)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $509k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (41.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (51.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (51.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.4% in Alger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#527 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Sedro-Woolley School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #117 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Samish Elementary School (176 students, 49% FRL); Cascade Middle School (697 students, 58% FRL); Sedro Woolley Senior High School (1,276 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $54k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $51k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$87k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $247,327 (51.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.16%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 17.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $542,232
• List price: $509,000
• Delta: -6.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21048 Parson Creek Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,512 (0%)	0mo	$500,000	$331	100
20758 Hartry Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	8mo	$585,000	$361	57
20800 Hartry Ln	0.48mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,630 (+8%)	12mo	$630,000	$387	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $200,145
• Equity at exit: $458,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.56×
• Total profit: $649,496
• Equity at exit: $988,875

Cash invested: $142,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98284

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 17.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,473 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,669
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,357/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-1,207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,001

Max offer price $295,739

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-919	-5% $-1,063	+0% $-1,207	+5% $-1,351	+10% $-1,495
Rent	-10% $-1,403	-5% $-1,305	+0% $-1,207	+5% $-1,110	+10% $-1,012
Rate	-1.0pp $-951	-0.5pp $-1,078	base $-1,207	+0.5pp $-1,339	+1.0pp $-1,473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,250
• Closing costs: $15,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $509,000 Active
2. 2006-08-31
   soldstatus $219,900
3. 2006-08-31
   soldstatus $219,900
4. 2006-06-02
   listed $213,900
5. 2005-03-23
   soldstatus $170,900
6. 2005-03-23
   soldstatus $170,900
7. 2005-01-03
   listed $167,900
8. 2004-09-09
   soldstatus $99,181

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,357 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,988 · $416/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,631/yr (+$136/mo · 48.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,512
• − Property taxes: −$3,357
• − Insurance: −$2,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,374
• − Management: −$2,374
• − Depreciation: −$14,807
• Taxable loss: −$24,291
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,830
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,657/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sedro-Woolley School District
• NCES district ID: 5307740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,385
• Composite: 47.45/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #117 of 291 in WA

Livability — Alger

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #21801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C+ Employment A Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,835
• Household income: $93,006
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 502.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.42%
• Current HPI: 1280.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+404.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $500,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $509,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $219,900 Public Records
• 2006-08-31 Sold (MLS) $219,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-02 Listed $213,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $170,900 Public Records
• 2005-03-23 Sold (MLS) $170,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-03 Listed $167,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $99,181 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,357 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.