4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,318 sqft ·
Built 1920
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,786/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,254
Tax + insurance
−$453
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$795
Net cashflow
$284/mo
Annual
$3,407/yr
Cap rate
7.09%
Cash-on-cash
2.83%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$120,372
Investor read
This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $430k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $142/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $379k (11.9% below list).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $379k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#66 in MA, #3,658 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
Chicopee (suburban): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 302 in MA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Bowe (math 16% / reading 31%, grade F, #745 of 938 statewide, top 80%, 409 students, 0% FRL); Dupont Middle (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #249 of 305 statewide, top 82%, 696 students, 0% FRL); Chicopee High (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #255 of 343 statewide, top 77%, 914 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 453 units permitted in Hampden County in 2024 (116 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hampden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $235k; list at $430k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.6% in Chicopee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,786/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 895% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29