533 W Northgate Pkwy

Toledo, OH 43612

$70,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 1948 · SingleFamily · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $874/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $195/mo
• Annual: $2,344/yr
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.96%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($874 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $70k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.