533 W Northgate Pkwy · Toledo, OH 43612

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1948 Fair condition 7,200 sqft lot $146/sqft · 31% below area Est $102k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable West Toledo 2 Bedroom Bungalow close to shopping with all appliances including washer/dryer combo. Fully fenced in yard with shed. Property being sold as is, with extremely low taxes, this property offers an excellent opportunity for a homeowner seeking affordable ownership or an investor looking for strong cash flow potential. Reduced Motivated Seller!

Key facts

• Shed
• Washer dryer combo
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• WASHER DRYER COMBO
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($906 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 7.0% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Whittier Elementary School (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,584 statewide, top 95%, 509 students, 0% FRL); Start High School (math 11% / reading 33%, grade F, #672 of 781 statewide, top 86%, 1,242 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 72% district-wide (47 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $70k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.52%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,660
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -31.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
715 W Northgate Pkwy	0.15mi	2/1.0	480 (0%)	49mo	$90,000	$188	73
821 W Northgate Pkwy	0.27mi	2/1.0	624 (+30%)	30mo	$95,000	$152	42
4506 Burnham Ave	0.97mi	2/1.0	558 (+16%)	10mo	$65,000	$116	31
5124 Selma St	2.21mi	2/1.0	616 (+28%)	12mo	$132,500	$215	30
1738 Berkshire Pl	2.20mi	2/1.0	624 (+30%)	14mo	$35,000	$56	28
5948 Curson Dr	1.40mi	2/1.0	539 (+12%)	30mo	$56,000	$104	24
1753 Northover Rd	1.53mi	2/1.0	616 (+28%)	20mo	$98,000	$159	24
1385 Darrel Rd	1.15mi	2/1.0	620 (+29%)	25mo	$129,900	$210	20
1444 Primrose Ave	1.31mi	2/1.0	592 (+23%)	33mo	$13,000	$22	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $5,571
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $35,387
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43612

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $906 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,184/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $626

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $241	+0% $221	+5% $201	+10% $181
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $185	+0% $221	+5% $257	+10% $292
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $239	base $221	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $70,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-02-21
    price $70,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Adorable West Toledo 2 Bedroom Bungalow close to shopping with all appliances including washer/dryer combo. Fully fenced in yard with shed. Property being sold as is, with extremely low taxes, this property offers an excellent opportunity for a homeowner seeking affordable ownership or an investor looking for strong cash flow potential. Reduced Motivated Seller!

14. 2026-01-27
    price $75,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Adorable West Toledo 2 Bedroom Bungalow close to shopping with all appliances including washer/dryer combo. Fully fenced in yard with shed. Property being sold as is, with extremely low taxes, this property offers an excellent opportunity for a homeowner seeking affordable ownership or an investor looking for strong cash flow potential. Reduced Motivated Seller!

15. 2026-01-02
    listed $80,000 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Adorable West Toledo 2 Bedroom Bungalow close to shopping with all appliances including washer/dryer combo. Fully fenced in yard with shed. Property being sold as is, with extremely low taxes, this property offers an excellent opportunity for a homeowner seeking affordable ownership or an investor looking for strong cash flow potential. Reduced Motivated Seller!

16. 2013-07-01
    soldstatus $37,000
17. 1991-08-26
    soldstatus $18,000
18. 1979-03-25
    soldstatus $16,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,184
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$870
• − Management: −$870
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $1,642
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$394
• After-tax cash flow: $2,256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $12,000–$21,600 screening

This single-family home in West Toledo requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen and bathroom, exterior siding, and landscaping. Painting and updating these areas can significantly enhance the home's appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn and dated appearance.
• Moderate Bathroom tile — Standard but dated tile, needs replacement.
• Minor Exterior siding — Some wear visible, could benefit from touch-up paint.
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and lack of landscaping, could improve curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Improves appearance and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace kitchen countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances the overall appeal. ↑
• Both Replace bathroom tile — Modernizes the bathroom and enhances the overall appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 19/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Larchmont Elementary School F OH #1,363/1,584 Nat'l #35,887/41,679 High Start High School F OH #672/781 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 420,751 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,480
• Household income: $50,728
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 23% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.05%
• Current HPI: 235.5389
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.01%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+314.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $70,000 NORIS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $75,000 NORIS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $80,000 NORIS
• 2013-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1979-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $16,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,184 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.