533 W Northgate Pkwy · Toledo, OH 43612

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1948 7,200 sqft lot $146/sqft · 30% below area Est $100k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable West Toledo 2 Bedroom Bungalow close to shopping with all appliances including washer/dryer combo. Fully fenced in yard with shed. Property being sold as is, with extremely low taxes, this property offers an excellent opportunity for a homeowner seeking affordable ownership or an investor looking for strong cash flow potential. Reduced Motivated Seller!

Key facts

• Shed
• Washer dryer combo
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• WASHER DRYER COMBO
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($874 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 7.7% in Toledo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $70k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.96%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,196
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -30.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $3,846
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $31,352
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43612

• Home prices YoY: -17.5%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,184/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $626

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $235	-5% $215	+0% $195	+5% $176	+10% $156
Rent	-10% $126	-5% $161	+0% $195	+5% $230	+10% $264
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $213	base $195	+0.5pp $177	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $70,000 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $70,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-02-21
    price $70,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Adorable West Toledo 2 Bedroom Bungalow close to shopping with all appliances including washer/dryer combo. Fully fenced in yard with shed. Property being sold as is, with extremely low taxes, this property offers an excellent opportunity for a homeowner seeking affordable ownership or an investor looking for strong cash flow potential. Reduced Motivated Seller!

14. 2026-01-27
    price $75,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Adorable West Toledo 2 Bedroom Bungalow close to shopping with all appliances including washer/dryer combo. Fully fenced in yard with shed. Property being sold as is, with extremely low taxes, this property offers an excellent opportunity for a homeowner seeking affordable ownership or an investor looking for strong cash flow potential. Reduced Motivated Seller!

15. 2026-01-02
    listed $80,000 Active 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Adorable West Toledo 2 Bedroom Bungalow close to shopping with all appliances including washer/dryer combo. Fully fenced in yard with shed. Property being sold as is, with extremely low taxes, this property offers an excellent opportunity for a homeowner seeking affordable ownership or an investor looking for strong cash flow potential. Reduced Motivated Seller!

16. 2013-07-01
    soldstatus $37,000
17. 1991-08-26
    soldstatus $18,000
18. 1979-03-25
    soldstatus $16,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,485
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,184
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$839
• − Management: −$839
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $1,316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$316
• After-tax cash flow: $2,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 28,480
• Household income: $50,728
• Rent vs Own: 45.4% rent · 54.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1203.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 23% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.05%
• Current HPI: 235.5389
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.01%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+314.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $70,000 NORIS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $75,000 NORIS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $80,000 NORIS
• 2013-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1991-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1979-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $16,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,184 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.