126 Hertel Ave

Buffalo, NY 14207

$234,900B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Built 1950 · MultiFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $609/mo
• Annual: $7,302/yr
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.10%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $65,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $235k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $2,512/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.