126 Hertel Ave · Buffalo, NY 14207

$234,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1950 5,269 sqft lot $102/sqft · 13% below area Est $270k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Spacious and updated multi-family property featuring two-bedroom units with new flooring throughout and a walk-up attic for storage or potential expansion. Highlights include a large driveway, detached 3-bay garage, and separate utilities with newer hot water tanks. Set on a generous lot, this property offers strong income potential in a convenient, low-maintenance Buffalo location.

Key facts

• Large driveway
• Separate utilities
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• WALK-UP ATTIC
• LARGE DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• NEWER HOT WATER TANKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessed value and tax details available (financial specifics excluded)
• Financial info: Two-unit multi-family property with separate gas and electric meters for each unit; Operating expense details: see remarks; Owner pays: other (see remarks); Rent includes: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached 3-car garage; Concrete and paved parking areas
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story building; Resale property; Existing construction
• Construction: Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 35 x 148

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance list provided
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: Each unit has one full bathroom (2 full bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Electric heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Luxury vinyl flooring; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $609 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $231k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,512/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $235k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $231,376 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.10%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,685
• List price: $234,900
• Delta: -12.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Peoria St	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,148 (-7%)	6mo	$138,000	$64	77
401 Dearborn St	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,455 (+7%)	17mo	$145,000	$59	67
306 East St	0.19mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,264 (-2%)	22mo	$200,000	$88	65
2112 Niagara St	0.21mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,020 (-12%)	14mo	$163,000	$81	53
24 Briggs Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,192 (-5%)	13mo	$211,000	$96	52
81 East St	0.59mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,469 (+7%)	5mo	$170,000	$69	51
69 Hunt Ave	0.48mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,484 (+8%)	15mo	$234,999	$95	47
85 Gallatin Ave	0.49mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,092 (-9%)	16mo	$195,000	$93	43
29 Hunt Ave	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,026 (-12%)	20mo	$185,000	$91	43
81 Grote St	0.69mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,024 (-12%)	13mo	$155,000	$77	31
151 Howell St	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,048 (-11%)	13mo	$120,000	$59	27
159 Howell St	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,978 (-14%)	22mo	$198,000	$100	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $13,855
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $121,929
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 15.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $555/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,742

Max offer price $234,900

Occupancy floor 71%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,512
Total (2 units)			$2,512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
138 Austin St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	3008	$1,500	$0.50	19d	1	0.20mi
78 Germain St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2030	$1,300	$0.64	14d	1	0.68mi
61 Baxter St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2014	$1,400	$0.70	1d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $249,900 Active 385-char remark
2. 2025-12-23
   soldstatus $120,000
3. 2019-07-29
   soldstatus $104,000
4. 2007-10-31
   soldstatus $46,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $555 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,262 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,708/yr (+$142/mo · 307.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$555
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable income: $3,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$864
• After-tax cash flow: $6,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+405.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $234,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $249,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2019-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $555 · +45.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.