686 29th St

Astoria, OR 97103

$365,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 236 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,249/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax + insurance: −$386
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-524/mo
• Annual: $-6,286/yr
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.15%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $102,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-524 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (25.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (38.4% below list).
• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#39 in OR, #891 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, cost of living C-.
• Astoria SD 1 (town): math 37% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #77 of 183 in OR (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lewis & Clark Elementary School (402 students, 39% FRL); Astoria Middle School (417 students, 38% FRL); Astoria Senior High School (631 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 98 units permitted in Clatsop County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 8 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $300k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.7% in Astoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.