102 Paradise Valley Dr

East Columbia, TX 77486

$297,500C-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,464 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax + insurance: −$586
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-760/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $83,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-760/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (9.2% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $262k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.