102 Paradise Valley Dr · East Columbia, TX 77486

$297,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1974 0.27 ac lot $121/sqft · 12% below area Est $337k · 12% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all buyers looking for a laid-back lifestyle w/ room to entertain! This home delivers character, functionality & a layout designed for everyday living beyond builder-basic design. As you arrive, the circular drive framed by the expansive lawn of this corner-lot home sets the tone. Inside, the layout feels comfortable & intentional w/ a spacious family room, centralized formal dining, breakfast nook & kitchen w/ access to the garage & ½ bath. The primary suite is unique, offering a separate sitting area, cozy office nook & private screened-in patio. The ensuite bath includes a double vanity, walk-in closet, jacuzzi tub & separate shower. One of the standout features is the fully fenced outdoor living space—accessible from multiple areas of the home—w/ a double-wide gate & storage shed. Notable improvements: foundation w/ transferable warranty (2025), Roof (2020), Flooring & Paint (2025). Call today to tour this spacious home ready for the next owner to create lasting memories.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Expansive lawn
• Circular drive

Tags

• CIRCULAR DRIVE
• EXPANSIVE LAWN
• SEPARATE SITTING AREA
• COZY OFFICE NOOK
• PRIVATE SCREENED-IN PATIO
• DOUBLE VANITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-760/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.91%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,255
• List price: $297,500
• Delta: -11.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Pecan Valley Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,481 (+1%)	1mo	$379,990	$153	89
2221 Lake Forrest Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,521 (+2%)	7mo	$349,900	$139	70
2221 River Valley Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,769 (+12%)	1mo	$325,000	$117	68
2036 Twin Lakes Blvd	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,532 (+3%)	2mo	$365,000	$144	68
215 Freeman Blvd	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,556 (+4%)	1mo	$345,000	$135	62
208 S Amherst Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,507 (+2%)	4mo	$310,939	$124	58
201 Wood Haven Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,507 (+2%)	8mo	$378,990	$151	57
2236 River Oaks Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5	2,203 (-11%)	8mo	$150,000	$68	56
2194 Twin Lakes Blvd	0.37mi	2/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (-12%)	1mo	$273,000	$126	54
297 Twin Lakes Blvd W	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,513 (+2%)	4mo	$348,000	$138	54
213 N Amherst Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,342 (-5%)	2mo	$369,500	$158	51
213 Woodhaven	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,219 (-10%)	3mo	$369,990	$167	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $111,625
• Equity at exit: $218,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $327,032
• Equity at exit: $426,888

Cash invested: $83,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,560
• Tax from tax record: −$462 /mo · $5,547/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,780

Max offer price $286,306

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,375
• Closing costs: $8,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2363 Ridgewood Dr West Columbia, TX	4.0	2.5	2555	$2,700	$1.06	24d	1	0.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,500 Pending 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,500 Pending 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,500 Pending 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $297,500 Pending 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,500 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,500 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,500 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,500 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $297,500 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $297,500 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $297,500 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $297,500 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $297,500 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,500 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    status Active 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    Calling all buyers looking for a laid-back lifestyle w/ room to entertain! This home delivers character, functionality & a layout designed for everyday living beyond builder-basic design. As you arrive, the circular drive framed by the expansive lawn of this corner-lot home sets the tone. Inside, the layout feels comfortable & intentional w/ a spacious family room, centralized formal dining, breakfast nook & kitchen w/ access to the garage & ½ bath. The primary suite is unique, offering a separate sitting area, cozy office nook & private screened-in patio. The ensuite bath includes a double vanity, walk-in closet, jacuzzi tub & separate shower. One of the standout features is the fully fenced outdoor living space—accessible from multiple areas of the home—w/ a double-wide gate & storage shed. Notable improvements: foundation w/ transferable warranty (2025), Roof (2020), Flooring & Paint (2025). Call today to tour this spacious home ready for the next owner to create lasting memories.

16. 2026-03-09
    status Pending 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    Calling all buyers looking for a laid-back lifestyle w/ room to entertain! This home delivers character, functionality & a layout designed for everyday living beyond builder-basic design. As you arrive, the circular drive framed by the expansive lawn of this corner-lot home sets the tone. Inside, the layout feels comfortable & intentional w/ a spacious family room, centralized formal dining, breakfast nook & kitchen w/ access to the garage & ½ bath. The primary suite is unique, offering a separate sitting area, cozy office nook & private screened-in patio. The ensuite bath includes a double vanity, walk-in closet, jacuzzi tub & separate shower. One of the standout features is the fully fenced outdoor living space—accessible from multiple areas of the home—w/ a double-wide gate & storage shed. Notable improvements: foundation w/ transferable warranty (2025), Roof (2020), Flooring & Paint (2025). Call today to tour this spacious home ready for the next owner to create lasting memories.

17. 2026-02-12
    listed $307,500 Active 1049-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1049 chars)

    Calling all buyers looking for a laid-back lifestyle w/ room to entertain! This home delivers character, functionality & a layout designed for everyday living beyond builder-basic design. As you arrive, the circular drive framed by the expansive lawn of this corner-lot home sets the tone. Inside, the layout feels comfortable & intentional w/ a spacious family room, centralized formal dining, breakfast nook & kitchen w/ access to the garage & ½ bath. The primary suite is unique, offering a separate sitting area, cozy office nook & private screened-in patio. The ensuite bath includes a double vanity, walk-in closet, jacuzzi tub & separate shower. One of the standout features is the fully fenced outdoor living space—accessible from multiple areas of the home—w/ a double-wide gate & storage shed. Notable improvements: foundation w/ transferable warranty (2025), Roof (2020), Flooring & Paint (2025). Call today to tour this spacious home ready for the next owner to create lasting memories.

18. 2017-04-24
    soldstatus
19. 2017-04-21
    soldstatus Sold 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    You will greatly enjoy the comfort this home offers. Wide front entry invites you in. Lg living rm is excellent for family gatherings. Island kitchen w/ lots of stg. & counter tops. Kit. leads out to a patio & scrn'd patio for more family fun. A 1/2 BA is available in laundry room. M. BR leads out to the scrn'd patio. Also off. & sitting rm. BA has sep. his/her vanities, 2 closets, shower & jetted tub. neighborhood is gated & offers golf, pool, tennis, fitness center & full-service restaurant.

20. 2017-04-21
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    You will greatly enjoy the comfort this home offers. Wide front entry invites you in. Lg living rm is excellent for family gatherings. Island kitchen w/ lots of stg. & counter tops. Kit. leads out to a patio & scrn'd patio for more family fun. A 1/2 BA is available in laundry room. M. BR leads out to the scrn'd patio. Also off. & sitting rm. BA has sep. his/her vanities, 2 closets, shower & jetted tub. neighborhood is gated & offers golf, pool, tennis, fitness center & full-service restaurant.

21. 2017-04-12
    status Pending 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    You will greatly enjoy the comfort this home offers. Wide front entry invites you in. Lg living rm is excellent for family gatherings. Island kitchen w/ lots of stg. & counter tops. Kit. leads out to a patio & scrn'd patio for more family fun. A 1/2 BA is available in laundry room. M. BR leads out to the scrn'd patio. Also off. & sitting rm. BA has sep. his/her vanities, 2 closets, shower & jetted tub. neighborhood is gated & offers golf, pool, tennis, fitness center & full-service restaurant.

22. 2017-04-03
    status Option Pending 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    You will greatly enjoy the comfort this home offers. Wide front entry invites you in. Lg living rm is excellent for family gatherings. Island kitchen w/ lots of stg. & counter tops. Kit. leads out to a patio & scrn'd patio for more family fun. A 1/2 BA is available in laundry room. M. BR leads out to the scrn'd patio. Also off. & sitting rm. BA has sep. his/her vanities, 2 closets, shower & jetted tub. neighborhood is gated & offers golf, pool, tennis, fitness center & full-service restaurant.

23. 2017-03-29
    listed $259,900 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    You will greatly enjoy the comfort this home offers. Wide front entry invites you in. Lg living rm is excellent for family gatherings. Island kitchen w/ lots of stg. & counter tops. Kit. leads out to a patio & scrn'd patio for more family fun. A 1/2 BA is available in laundry room. M. BR leads out to the scrn'd patio. Also off. & sitting rm. BA has sep. his/her vanities, 2 closets, shower & jetted tub. neighborhood is gated & offers golf, pool, tennis, fitness center & full-service restaurant.

24. 2017-03-20
    listed $259,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,547 · $462/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,547 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,665
• − Property taxes: −$5,547
• − Insurance: −$1,488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,655
• Taxable loss: −$5,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,377
• After-tax cash flow: $617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Columbia

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listed $307,500 HARMLS
• 2017-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-21 Sold (MLS) — BCBR
• 2017-04-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-04-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-03-29 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2017-03-20 Listed $259,900 BCBR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,547 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.