455 W Kelso St Apt 225

Tucson, AZ 85705

$105,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 560 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $808/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$185
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $-173/mo
• Annual: $-2,076/yr
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-173 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: E C Nash School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #944 of 1,109 statewide, top 87%, 296 students, 94% FRL); La Cima Middle School (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #155 of 218 statewide, top 71%, 421 students, 78% FRL); Amphitheater High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,163 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 24% district-wide (60 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Amphitheater Unified District (4406) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 177 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.